The autumn auction calendar for high-end timepieces is already in full swing, marked by a significant record set at a recent Sotheby’s auction in Hong Kong and the anticipated return of a storied auction house to New York City. This period, often a barometer for the health and direction of the luxury watch market, is currently presenting a complex and evolving landscape for collectors and enthusiasts alike. The recent sale of a white gold Cartier Cheich for an astounding $3.4 million, setting new benchmarks for both Cartier and quartz-powered watches, has ignited discussions about market valuation, the influence of hype, and the enduring allure of rare and historically significant timepieces.
Navigating a Volatile Market: Data, Hype, and the "Bubble"
The unprecedented price achieved by the Cartier Cheich underscores a broader trend observed in the watch market: a growing difficulty in discerning intrinsic value from speculative pricing. The watch, which had previously traded hands at significantly lower figures, now commands a price that challenges conventional market understanding. This phenomenon is not isolated. Experts and seasoned collectors, including those at Hodinkee, have expressed a sense of bewilderment regarding current market dynamics, acknowledging the increasing unpredictability of both retail and auction prices.
The market’s current trajectory raises critical questions about the sustainability of soaring valuations for certain brands. F.P. Journe and A. Lange & Söhne, in particular, have been subjects of intense debate. While some analysts believe these brands may be approaching the peak of their market "bubble," other anecdotal evidence suggests a continued, robust demand for historically important pieces, even from more traditional manufacturers. A recent account of a historically significant watch from a heritage brand, which was undervalued a decade ago, now being available for double its previous price – well into the seven figures – illustrates the unpredictable nature of market corrections and re-evaluations.
This uncertainty is amplified by conflicting narratives surrounding market drivers. For instance, debates have emerged concerning the valuation of A. Lange & Söhne timepieces. One perspective, championed by resources like Langepedia, argues that the brand’s market strength is rooted in tangible factors, including the demonstrable rarity of specific models and robust historical data. Conversely, others, such as dealer Alfredo Paramico, suggest that a significant portion of the brand’s appeal may be influenced by marketing, perceived scarcity, and what they describe as "curious bidding" at auctions, potentially driven by dealers with vested interests in maintaining high prices.
The dramatic price shift for certain A. Lange & Söhne models, such as the Tourbillon Pour le Mérite, which has seen its value more than double in just two years, from approximately $400,000 to over $1 million, exemplifies this market tension. Similarly, the increased availability of Wellendorf bracelets, previously elusive and now fetching hundreds of thousands of dollars, adds another layer to this complex market picture. These shifts necessitate a cautious approach for buyers, emphasizing personal valuation over speculative market sentiment. As the adage goes, "buy what you love," rather than solely what you believe will appreciate.
Marteau & Co.’s "The Encore": A Curated Masterclass in Horology
As the fall auction season unfolds, Marteau & Co. presents "The Encore," a meticulously curated auction running from October 8th to 15th, featuring approximately 40 exceptional timepieces. This approach, focusing on quality over quantity, allows each lot to receive individual attention and often garners significant collector interest. Marteau’s strategy of presenting a tightly controlled selection means that nearly every item has the potential to be a standalone story, making it challenging to highlight just a few pieces without diminishing the appeal of others. Interested parties are encouraged to delve into the full catalog to appreciate the breadth of offerings.
Among the standout lots generating considerable buzz is a complete set of 38mm F.P. Journe watches in steel, accompanied by their original presentation boxes. This particular set, identified as number 37, marks its debut at auction and arrives at a moment when the F.P. Journe market is experiencing robust demand. The collection comprises the highly sought-after Tourbillon, Resonance, Octa Calendrier, Reserve de Marche, and Chronomètre Souverain models, all featuring distinctive gold dials. This steel collection is particularly noteworthy, as steel versions of these iconic models are significantly rarer than their precious metal counterparts. Last year, a similar complete set reportedly sold for around $3 million, a figure that predates the recent market surge, suggesting that "The Encore" offering could achieve even greater heights. A single F.P. Journe Resonance was recently offered privately for an estimated $650,000, further underscoring the value of such complete collections.
Beyond the headline F.P. Journe set, "The Encore" showcases a remarkable array of independent and contemporary watchmaking talent. Sylvain Pinaud, whose recent tourbillon garnered significant attention and sold out rapidly, presents his Piece Unique Origine in rose gold, a stunning creation with an estimated value between CHF 80,000 and CHF 160,000. This piece exemplifies the growing appreciation for artisanal watchmaking.
Another compelling lot is the unique Primevere by Yosuke Sekiguchi, a Japanese-born, Swiss-based watchmaker previously featured on Hodinkee. Sekiguchi represents a new wave of talented watchmakers who are gaining traction as collector interest expands beyond established giants to emerging masters.
The auction also features significant pieces from Ludovic Ballouard and Marco Lang. Ballouard’s Half Time is expected to attract strong bidding, as his "Upside Down" models are well-known among independent watch collectors, but the Half Time is a rarer offering. Marco Lang’s Zweigesicht-1, from his standalone brand (distinct from Lang & Heyne, which he founded and departed from), is another highlight. With an estimate of CHF 200,000 to CHF 400,000, this unique piece is poised to capture attention and potentially boost Lang’s profile in the auction arena.
The "affordable" segment of "The Encore" also presents compelling opportunities. Self-taught watchmakers Reuben Schoots and Ondrej Berkus offer distinct styles, with their pieces anticipated to perform strongly against their estimates. The Habring2 Five Minute Repeater, featuring a notably skeletonized dial that deviates from the brand’s typical aesthetic, is of particular interest. J.N. Shapiro’s work is also expected to exceed its high estimate. The auction also includes pieces from Michiel Holthinrichs, Kurono Tokyo, and others, demonstrating Marteau’s commitment to a diverse and engaging selection.
Furthermore, Marteau is hosting another auction in October titled "The Blue Print," which includes a unique Philippe Dufour Simplicity with an aventurine dial, previously offered for charity, signaling the auction house’s ongoing commitment to offering exceptional and rare timepieces.
Antiquorum’s New York Revival: A Strategic Return to the Heart of the Market
After more than a decade, Antiquorum, a pioneer in watch-only auctions, is making a significant return to New York City with a live sale on October 18th at The Ned Nomad, commencing at 11 am EDT. While Geneva remains the global epicenter for watch auctions, Antiquorum’s presence in New York signifies a strategic effort to tap into the vibrant North American collector base. This sale, featuring a more focused catalog of 157 lots compared to their typically extensive Geneva auctions, aims to make a strong impression.
The auction commences with an array of books and ephemera, a departure from the traditional auction house strategy of opening with high-impact watches. While this approach may seem unconventional, it could serve to build anticipation and draw in collectors interested in horological history and artifacts before moving to the main event.
The sale quickly transitions to highly desirable timepieces, including a Comex Submariner and a rare Tiffany-signed 14k yellow gold Rolex ref. 6241 Daytona. The combination of a 14k gold case and a U.S. market retailer like Tiffany & Co. is significant. However, in the current market climate, discerning collectors are advised to meticulously examine any double-signed pieces, ensuring their authenticity and condition are beyond reproach.
A particularly noteworthy lot is a Patek Philippe reference 96, described as a "possibly unique" example. Its characteristics, according to Antiquorum and research by Eric Tortella, point to an early production run from 1932. However, the Patek Philippe archives do not fully corroborate the specific dial configuration, introducing an element of ambiguity. The nuances of Patek Philippe’s archival practices regarding unique pieces remain a subject of discussion among experts, making this lot a prime example of where buyer intuition and personal due diligence play a crucial role.
The auction also features two special-order Cartier Crash watches, both estimated between $400,000 and $600,000. The variant with a grey fume dial is particularly distinctive. The enduring appeal of the Cartier Crash, coupled with the brand’s recent market momentum, suggests these pieces will generate substantial interest.
A Bueche-Girod watch, bearing a striking resemblance to the Cartier Maxi Oval, is also up for auction with an estimate of $15,000 to $30,000. Historically, these pieces were considerably more affordable, with their market positioning often linked to their potential connection to Cartier’s production or inspiration. Their current valuation reflects a growing interest in unique designs that echo iconic luxury pieces.
The latter half of the auction includes a strong selection of modern watches, from Rolex and Patek Philippe to Harry Winston, Hublot, and more. A Patek Philippe ref. 5102 Celestial, despite its complex astronomical functions sometimes being overlooked by mainstream buyers, is present. An interesting entry is a rainbow-set Streamliner Tourbillon, listed under "Henri Moser," a slight misnomer as the brand is officially H. Moser & Cie. This piece, with its vibrant gem-setting, appears well-suited for a fashion-forward market.
Near the end of the sale, F.P. Journe highlights include a Vagabondage II with a starting bid of $500,000 and a "Back Series" Tourbillon Vertical with a $800,000 reserve. However, the lot that truly stands out is a Vacheron Constantin ref. 30020 Les Complications. This 1994 platinum timepiece, measuring a balanced 37mm, features a perpetual calendar and minute repeater, enhanced by elegant teardrop lugs. With an estimate of $200,000 to $400,000, it represents a compelling value proposition compared to similar Patek Philippe pieces from the same era, which could command six times the lower estimate. This Vacheron Constantin exemplifies Antiquorum’s strength in identifying and presenting exceptional, less-hyped complications.
